Israel Planning a September/October Surprise? By Ray McGovern

Israel Planning a September/October Surprise?

By Ray McGovern

17/07/08 "ICH" -- -You say you expected more rhetoric than reality from Senators Obama and McCain yesterday in their speeches on Iraq and Afghanistan? Well, that’s certainly what you got.

What I find nonetheless amazing is how they, and the pundits, have taken such little notice of the dramatic change in the political landscape occasioned by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s bombshell on July 7 — his insistence on a “timetable” for withdrawal of US troops before any accord is reached on their staying past the turn of the year.

Responding to a question at his press conference yesterday, President George W. Bush showed that he was vaguely aware that the timetable is, as Robert Dreyfuss says (in Truthout, July 7), a “big deal.” Bush even alluded haltingly to the possibility of extending the UN mandate still further.

But it is far from clear that Maliki, who is under great domestic pressure, would be able to sell that to the various factions upon which he depends for support, much less to those which he must keep at bay. As Dreyfuss points out, Maliki and his Shiite allies are also under considerable pressure from Iran, which remains the chief ally of the ruling alliance of Shiites. Most important, Maliki is by no means in control of what happens next.


Here’s where it gets sticky. No one who knows about third rails in US politics would expect the candidates or the fawning corporate media (FCM) to address how those now running Israel are likely to be looking at the implications of a large US troop withdrawal from Iraq next year.

I am remembering how I was pilloried on June 16, 2005, immediately after Congressman John Conyers’ rump-Judiciary Committee hearing in the bowels of the Capitol, for a candid answer to a question from one of his colleagues; i. e., if the invasion of Iraq was not about WMD, and not about non-existent ties between Iraq and al-Qaeda, then why did we attack?

In answer, I used the acronym OIL. O for oil; I for Israel; and L for Logistics, meaning the military bases deemed by neoconservatives as necessary to protect both. Neither the House members present nor the media people seemed to have any problem with oil and military bases as factors-in itself an interesting commentary.

However, the suggestion that one main motive was an attempt to make that part of the Middle East safer for Israel (yes, folks, the neocons really thought that attacking Iraq would do that) — well, that was anathema.

As it is anathema today to suggest that this is still one of the main reasons, besides oil, that Elliott Abrams, other neocons — not to mention Vice President Dick Cheney and his team — insist we must stay, Maliki and his associates be damned. (See the cartoon in the Washington Times today showing Maliki and words telling him “We are NOT leaving.”)

Here in Washington we can sit back and quibble over the implications of such remarks by Maliki and other Iraqi leaders. The Israelis have to take such statements seriously. No agreement on US forces staying into 2009 without a timetable for withdrawal? For Tel Aviv, this is getting very serious.

My guess is the Israeli leaders are apoplectic. The fiasco in Iraq clearly has made the region much more dangerous for Israel. There are actually real “terrorists” and “extremists” now in Iraq, and the prospect of US troops leaving has got to be a cause of acute concern in Tel Aviv.

Keeping the US Entangled: Iran

This dramatic change — or even just the specter of it — greatly increases Israel’s incentive to ensure the kind of US involvement in the area that would have to endure for several years. The Israelis need to create “facts on the ground” — something to guarantee that Washington will stand by what U.S. candidates, including Sen. Obama, call “our ally.” (Never mind that there is no mutual US-Israel defense treaty.) Israel is all too painfully aware that it has only six more months of Bush and Cheney.

The legislation drafted by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) being so zealously promoted in Congress calls for the equivalent of a blockade of Iran. That would be one way to entangle; there are many others.

The point is that the growing danger that the Israelis perceive will probably prompt them to find a way to get the US involved in hostilities with Iran. Cheney and Bush have pretty much given them that license, with the president regularly pledging to defend “our ally” if Israel is attacked.

All Israel has to do is to arrange to be attacked. Not a problem.

There are endless possibilities among which Israel can choose to catalyze such a confrontation — with or without a wink and a nod from Cheney and Abrams. The so-called “amber light” said to have been given to the Israelis is, I believe, already seen as quite sufficient; they are not likely to feel a need to wait until it turns green.

So far, the resistance of U.S. senior military has been the only real obstacle to the madness of hostilities with Iran. (And one need only read Scott Ritter’s article on Truthdig this week to get a sense for why they would be chary.)

Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, Adm. Mike Mullen, has been described as warning the Israelis that a “Third Front” in the Middle East would be a disaster. I think, rather, he was trying to warn anyone who might listen in Washington, including until now tone-deaf lawmakers.

Even if the pundits are correct in suggesting that Mullen is joined by Defense Secretary Robert Gates in trying to resist the neocons and Cheney, Mullen’s tone at his press conference two weeks ago suggested he is fighting a rear guard action-against the “crazies” in the White House, as well as those in Tel Aviv. And when is the last time the crazies lost a political battle with such implications for Israel?

Mullen had just returned from Tel Aviv. He appreciates better than most the fecklessness of endless speculation over whether Israel or the U.S. might strike Iran first. Even if the Israeli leaders have no explicit assurances from the White House, they almost certainly calculate that, once a casus belli is established, their friends in Washington — and the troops they command — are likely to be committed to the fray big time.

Seatbelts Please…

Viewed from Tel Aviv it appears an increasingly threatening situation, with more urgent need to “embed” (so to speak) the United States even more deeply in the region — in a confrontation involving both countries with Iran.

A perfect storm is brewing:

– Petraeus ex Machina, with a record of doing Vice President Dick Cheney’s bidding, takes command of CENTCOM in September;

– Sen. McCain’s numbers are likely to be in the toilet at that point (because of the economy as much as anything else);

– McCain will be seen by the White House as the only candidate with something to gain by a wider war (just as by another “terrorist incident”);

– The Bush/Cheney months will be down to three;

– And Maliki will not be able to cave in to Washington on the timeline requirement he has publicly set.

In sum, Israel is likely to be preparing a September/October surprise designed to keep the US bogged down in Iraq and in the wider region by provoking hostilities with Iran. And don’t be surprised if it starts as early as August. Israel’s leaders may well plead for understanding on the part of those U.S. officials not tipped off in advance, claiming that they could not distinguish amber from green with their night-vision goggles on.

Would they hesitate? Please tell me who…just who is likely to turn on the siren, pull them over, and even think of giving them a summons-once the patrol car computer confirms their privileged licenses?

Ray McGovern works with Tell the Word, the publishing arm of the ecumenical Church of the Saviour in inner-city Washington. A former Army intelligence officer and CIA analyst, he is now on the Steering Group of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS).

A shorter version of this article appeared first on .

Great Post. Right on Target!

Maliki has no real power without US support, I think his talk is for politics on the home front. Israel will pull out all the stops as they see fit. The republicans can divert attention away from judicial hearings and short circuit Obama's phony peace platform at the same time. I guess we'll just have to sweat out the summer, pity it's my favorite time of year.

Ray McGovern - Radio

and . . . anyone notice that they are pulling the plug on the economy this week?

And with oil prices dropping

And with oil prices dropping a bit this week, and the last two days' of the Dow closing up over 200 pts each day . . . another sleight of hand; another illusion . . . and the general public can still believe Bush when he says the economy is good, even when Bernacke contradicts Bush . . .

I keep thinking of what Shakespeare could've done with this material . . .

Summer of Truth

Thanks Betsy

.......good post. As far as the economy i have to agree with Ron Paul.....The unfederal, no reserve banks, along with our stupid, and corrupt politicians have driven our country into the finacial dirt.................Their comes a time when you have to pay the fiddler, and i think that time is upon us.

I believe you and Ron Paul

I believe you and Ron Paul are right.

It hasn't exactly been a Ponzi scheme, but it certainly is going to have the effect of one.

I've been trying to tell my friends and family to get out now - of the stock market. When Alan Greenspan admits he's investing in gold as he did, I believe about 3 months ago, that's a pretty good clue there's the potential for not just a stock market collapse - given the state of affairs -but a dollar collapse, a major devaluation, as we're seeing now, because of the oil and petrodollar issue.

Alex Jones had an excellent guest on this topic, Bob Chapman, I think. My iPod lists it as Friday without a specific date - so probably July 11th?? I'll have to look it up . . . I think Chapman was about an hour - hour and a half into the show.

Chapman suggests gold could hit $2,200-3000. . . he states someone else even suggested $6,000 + - which seems really hard to believe, but when you look at housing prices over the years, etc . . . nothing's impossible.


social security...Due to the fact of our corrupt politicians. I read an article in Readers Digest that said in the early sixties that the social security fund was growing at such an alarming rates , that if left alone by our politicians it could have paid the national debt ten times over.
I believe their next target is the massive 401K funds. How can anybody withdraw their security for retirement?

Shakespeare: "The pen is mightier than the sword."

"I keep thinking of what Shakespeare could've done with this material . . ."

Betsy, This line comes to mind. Our luck though, Shakespeare might be a neocon if he were around!

McGovern's logic is sound and I've been looking for something to give all year? It doesn't help when you read articles where Israeli soldiers are hospitalized after loading fighter jets?

15 Israeli soldiers sickened

Neocons, Israel...
...don't believe them!

True, EXCEPT...

Israel is not under any genuine threat. It's manufactured, and no government in the middle east would consider attacking it. The "crazies" have 400+ atomic bombs and the means of delivering them by air or sea.

Thus, the real motivation is not the over-hyped "existential threat", especially from non-existent "Iranian nukes."


This is all about something far more sinister. Expansion. Israel has been checked and put in its place by a combination of Iranian conventional support for Hezbollah (who successfully DEFENDED against the Israeli war crime invasion of 2006), and other factors that restrict Israel's plan for more conquering and plunder (world opinion is one).

This is not an existential threat. This is a check on ruthless, greedy ambition and racist aggression against the Arabs.

That is something that can and should remain in check.

It is only because of the military might bestowed on it by US taxpayers that any of these war crimes are made possible in the first place. The US could (and should) cut off all funding for Israeli military, and there would be far more peace in the region. They could no longer go on bloodthirsty rampages into their neighbor's yards, selling us the propaganda pretexts on our airwaves...

70 Disturbing Facts About 9/11

John Doraemi publishes Crimes of the State Blog

johndoraemi --at--